The Peterson Health Technology Institute just published a roadmap for scaling high-value AI in healthcare, and the good news is that AI is currently doing exactly what it’s supposed to. Unfortunately, that’s also the bad news.
Follow the incentives. PHTI sets the stage by explaining why existing fee-for-service models have led to AI solutions that fuel a broken system rather than improving it. Tough to argue with.
- When health systems implement AI that optimizes coding for revenue, you’re going to see more Level 5 encounters. Not malicious, just tech doing its job.
- Payers are doing the same thing with prior authorization. AI squeezes every drop out of the rules that it’s given, which equates to more denials and lower cost per claim.
PHTI says this is exactly what we asked for. When you incentivize volume and complexity, AI heads straight for it: prior auth, coding, claims, and appeals.
- Focus follows revenue, and we’re currently on a direct course for a whole lot more of a rough status quo if incentives stay the same.
What’s the fix? Refocus reimbursement on outcomes over activity.
PHTI’s roadmap has four pillars to make that happen:
- Understand what works – Define outcomes, compare AI solutions, and continuously monitor what actually improves outcomes. Results matter more than process, and they’re the quickest way to build trust.
- Set rules for coverage and use – Clarify licensure, liability, oversight, and coverage for AI-enabled care. Get payers aligned so that proven tech has a defined path to payment.
- Purchase effectively – Pay for outcomes rather than activity, with real-world performance reflected in vendor pricing power. If vendors are evaluated against transparent outcome measures, then those are exactly what’s likely to improve.
- Redesign care delivery – Remove wasteful administrative processes instead of layering agents on top. PHTI envisions admin processes streamlining as a result of better care delivery, rather than setting its boundaries.
Incentivize outcomes. Not exactly a novel idea, but PHTI paints a scary picture of the AI-powered future where it doesn’t happen. AI is a multiplier, and now’s the time to make sure it’s multiplying the right variables.
The Takeaway
PHTI was right on cue with the AI horror stories, and it outlined exactly where the script needs to change if we want a happy ending.


