Rock Health Q3 Update: Tapestry Weaving

Rock Health’s Q3 Digital Health Market Update showed that investors have found comfort strolling down a path of “focused funding,” with last quarter’s innovation story shifting from transaction volume to market positioning.

The U.S. digital health sector logged $2.4B in venture funding across 110 rounds in Q3 2024, bringing year-to-date funding to $8.2B. 

  • While Q3’s 110 rounds marked a slowdown from 136 in Q1 and 133 in Q2, average investment size held steady at $22M quarter-over-quarter, indicating that investors are honing their focus while continuing to make sharp plays.
  • The analysis also noted that investments are overlapping with partnerships, with companies keen to support startups they’ve already worked with in crowded spaces like healthcare AI – as seen with NVIDIA and Hippocratic AI.

The real narrative behind last quarter’s activity was what Rock Health referred to as “tapestry weaving,” or digital health players building up their offerings to compete with legacy leaders and market incumbents. The related graphic was easy on the eyes.

  • While Q3 mergers and acquisitions were also low at just 21 moves – versus a quarterly average of 37 last year – companies like Dario and Fabric are using M&A to integrate new capabilities and expand their footprint.
  • Like weaving a tapestry, both Dario’s addition of Twill and Fabric’s acquisition of TeamHealth VirtualCare stitched together different solutions to create a more robust platform and address a broader range of customer needs. 

Tapestry weaving isn’t exactly an easy hobby. It involves integrating different products, teams, and go-to-market strategies that all have a chance of backfiring along the way.

  • Big acquisitions help compete for big contracts, but they can also strain the acquirer’s balance sheet.
  • CVS is an easy example. In the last six years, CVS used $88B to add a major payor, a clinic operator, and a home-care provider to its flagship pharmacies. The entire company is now valued at less than the cost of those three moves ($83B current market cap).

The Takeaway

Although the raw count of digital health investments continues to drop off, activity volume isn’t the same as activity quality. The tapestry weaving trend is a reminder that the “true impact of digital health innovation is shaped in the details,” through its investment structures, targeted partnerships, and post-M&A playbooks.

2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy

Trilliant Health just released its 2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report, delivering a unique perspective on the healthcare market through the lens of supply and demand.

The fourth edition of the report builds on the core findings from the previous three:

  • 2021: Healthcare is a negative-sum game.
  • 2022: Every part of the health economy will be impacted by reduced yield.
  • 2023: The victors in healthcare’s negative-sum game will be those who deliver value.

This year’s 164 page analysis is organized into eight sections, each examining a significant macro trend and supported by a wide collection of data-driven stories:

  • 1) The healthcare system is disproportionately expensive. Despite spending nearly 2X more on healthcare than peer countries, utilization has remained largely unchanged, while increasing 7% in peer countries since 2000. U.S. outcomes are also far worse. (Page 11 Chart)
  • 2) Health status continues to decline. We’re seeing higher volumes of early onset cancers in patients under age 45 for breast (+6.6%), colon (+10.0%), and kidney (+2.1%) between 2018 and 2023. (Page 22 Chart)
  • 3) Government regulation is failing to produce value. This one’s a mixed bag. Regulating cigarettes decreased usage by 30%, but mandated reporting of quality measures hasn’t yielded enough improvement to offset the cost of reporting. (Page 46 Chart)
  • 4) The value of tech advancements is uncertain. Since 2018, multiple AI CPT codes have been introduced, but utilization remains infrequent and concentrated among cardiac conditions such as coronary artery disease and ECG cardiac dysfunction. (Page 77 Chart)
  • 5) Supply constraints are correlated with inadequate yield. The decrease in practicing physicians from 2019 to 2023 resulted in a -0.9% workforce reduction. Notably, 31.3% of physicians changed practice location over that time period. (Page 89 Chart)
  • 6) Forced consumerism has fostered fragmentation. Over 14% of patients with commercial coverage go out-of-network for behavioral health services, versus just 2% for physical care. (Page 111 Chart)
  • 7) Lower-cost care settings can offer better value. New treatment paradigms often start in the hospital but shift to new settings over time (due to new tools, reimbursement reform). How long will that continue? (Page 125 Chart)
  • 8) Employers are better equipped to demand value. Employers have historically been relatively passive in managing healthcare costs., but new transparency requirements compel them to change that. (Page 148 Chart)

The Takeaway

Trilliant’s report showcases the fact that the inputs of the U.S. healthcare system, as measured by cost, exceed the outputs, as measured by the actual value received by Americans. As Trilliant’s Head of Research Sanjula Jain puts it, “every stakeholder can – and must – deliver more value to their customers.”

Sync Fast and Solve Things

The “move fast and break things” motto might work wonders with consumer products, but a new editorial in npj Digital Medicine makes a compelling case that healthcare needs to flip that paradigm on its head and co-create with clinicians to “sync fast and solve things.”

The editorial argues that healthcare practitioners (HCPs) should play an active role in driving digital health innovation, as opposed to being passively “consulted” so that developers can tout the fact that their product is backed by clinicians.

  • The breakneck pace of digital innovation in the wake of the pandemic has outpaced the inclusion of HCPs in the co-creation of new solutions, leading to a fight-or-flight response where clinicians are reluctant to adopt said solutions to defend their traditional responsibilities. Separate research seems to back that up.
  • If new tools lack product insight and buy-in from HCPs, they’re significantly more likely to be doomed to clinical irrelevance, as showcased by a recent analysis that found 44% of digital health companies have a clinical robustness score of 0 out of 10.

Although it isn’t an earth-shattering revelation that HCPs have a solid grasp on the exact workflows needed to inform clinically relevant solutions, the authors offer three considerations for shifting from “passive” to “active” co-creation.

  • First, financial incentives alone aren’t enough to ensure busy clinicians can engage in meaningful co-creation. The most important incentive that companies can offer clinicians is time, particularly by delivering a product that can optimize workflow efficiency or help deliver quicker treatments.
  • Second, the article stresses a need to embed digital health technologies in clinical curricula so that HCPs can learn about not just using these new tools, but also translating their experience into better-informed products.
  • Lastly, the authors lay out why there’s a role for regulators to mandate that HCPs participate in digital health innovation, and suggest that payors and legislators consider augmenting their approval processes by requiring HCPs be involved in the development of new solutions to serve as a proxy for their clinical safety and efficacy.

The Takeaway

Healthcare clearly isn’t the best sandbox to “move fast and break things,” but this article is an important reminder that “sync fast and solve things” shouldn’t mean trading clinician input for speed. While passive co-creation might help with the marketing materials, giving clinicians an active role in product development is the only way to ensure their experience is reflected in digital innovation.

The Dynamics Steering Healthcare in Q3 2024

It’s rare that a mid-year trend roundup qualifies as the biggest story of the week, but it’s also rare that they’re as stellar as the one that former HHS policy leader Paul Mango just released.

Mr. Mango served juicy takes on three of the biggest trends shaking up the industry:

Trend #1) Payor transformation has been full-speed-ahead as payors seek success in managing beneficiaries with chronic conditions by developing their own disease management platforms (not to mention new arcs of growth help justify their climbing P/E ratios).

  • Evernorth is now 80% of Cigna’s total revenue and a whopping 68% of its profit – mostly as the result of its Express Scripts acquisition in 2018. In the first half of the year, Evernorth grew 29% while Cigna as a whole grew 4%.
  • United was obviously an early mover into non-health plan assets, but Optum is now the key growth driver for the entire enterprise. United Healthcare remains Optum’s largest client (accounting for two-thirds of its revenue), but Optum now represents 25% of UNH’s total revenue and 49% of its profit (thanks in large part to OptumRx).

Trend #2) Provider tailwinds are adding up as several key performance measures improve simultaneously, including higher volume, increased acuity for inpatients, and lower labor costs. 

  • HCA just posted same store revenue up 10% due to a combination of the aforementioned tailwinds. ACA exchange volume was up 46% (total commercial volume rose 12.5%), and contract labor costs were down 25%.
  • Even Community Health Systems, whose performance has lagged other national hospital chain operators, saw a 3.2% increase in admissions and a 4.7% bump to same store revenue. CHS axed contract labor costs by 39% year over year.

Trend #3) Medicare Part D upheaval has been emanating from the Inflation Reduction Act, which will take full effect on the 1st of next year.

  • Mango boils down the IRA’s impact on Part D as such: it shifted the economic burden from beneficiaries who are heavy consumers of prescription drugs to the payors issuing the plans. 
  • Medicare Part D has been around for twenty years and during that time the combination of the beneficiary’s premium and government’s subsidy only rose to $64.28. “The impact of the IRA in one year’s time will cause that to rise to $179.45.

The Takeaway

Where is all this payor transformation heading, especially as providers increasingly view them as competitors? Will health systems sustain their momentum, or is recent performance a reflection of pent-up pandemic demand? All eyes will be on next quarter’s numbers to find out, and you’ll be the first to know when we see them.

Spring Health Eyes IPO After $100M Series E

If 2024 wasn’t already the Year of Mental Healthcare, Spring Health’s $100 million Series E just cemented it.

The funding vaulted Spring’s valuation to $3.3B and made April Koh the youngest woman to helm a multibillion-dollar company in the process. Not bad for 31 years old!

Spring provides employers and health plans with access to a stable of over 10k contract therapists that can help improve outcomes while reigning in treatment costs.

  • At the core of Spring’s platform is Precision Mental Healthcare, which uses AI to analyze patient data (symptoms, socio-demographic, “key factors”) and quickly match individuals to appropriate care.
  • The value proposition seems to be resonating. Spring covers 10M lives through 450 directly contracted employers, strategic payor relationships, and channel partners.

The funding follows the recent expansion of Spring’s Global offering (soon to be available in 30 languages), the launch of Community Care (an SDOH initiative), and a big push for SpringWorks (a workplace culture program).

  • Spring also touted that it’s the only platform of its kind to receive external validation for delivering employers a net positive ROI.
  • That’s apparently been a key differentiator from other behavioral health heavy-hitters vying for the same employers. Headspace, Lyra, and Evernorth all jump to mind.

An investment memo from Series E participant Kinnevik helped color in the roadmap Spring outlined in its announcement.

  • Outside of fueling Spring’s expansion into higher acuity needs and pediatrics, the funding was intended to strengthen up its balance sheet ahead of an impending IPO.
  • The memo also revealed that Spring is in a good spot to be eyeing a public debut after growing run-rate revenue by 15x since 2021 and setting itself up to hit positive margins sometime next year. 

The Takeaway

Mental health is one of the defining problems of the decade, and Spring Health is at the forefront of addressing it. Scaling globally without sacrificing care quality is a delicate balance, but Spring believes that it’s “on track to build one of the world’s most valuable companies.”

Epic, Mayo, Abridge Tackle Nursing Workflows

The power trio of Mayo Clinic, Epic, and Abridge are joining forces to bring the magic of generative AI to the “scaffolding of the healthcare system” – nurses.

The new solution will work similar to Abridge’s core ambient documentation tools for physicians, but optimized specifically for the unique complexity of nursing workflows.

  • Whereas physician conversations usually involve capturing the medical history and patient’s story, nurses are also performing and documenting tasks like vitals collection or turning patients to avoid bed sores.
  • This data all ends up in different places within the EHR, and requires a new user experience to work backwards from.

Mayo Clinic nurses are at the center of the collaboration.

  • The development team is engaging with them directly to ensure the new solution meets the needs of all nursing and patient care workflows along with regulatory requirements for ambient solutions.
  • Nurses will also help prioritize the workflows where the tool will have the highest impact, and will be “instrumental” in designing and testing the overall solution.

Epic’s involvement will allow the tool to integrate seamlessly into its EHR and inpatient nursing workflows, another sign that the company is all-in on quickly advancing its GenAI roadmap.

  • It also represents one of the most significant efforts to stem from the Epic Workshop program announced last year, which features third-party vendors co-developing technology with Epic. 

The combination of Abridge’s AI stack, Epic’s development, and Mayo Clinic’s nursing expertise should help accelerate the development cycle, and the health system is looking to get the tool in the hands of nurses before the end of the year.

The Takeaway

Nurses perform a massive breadth of activities in fast-paced environments, and they’re grappling with the same documentation-driven burnout as the rest of the industry. Toggling between patient duties, documentation, and staff communication is a demanding use case for ambient AI, but this team appears to have all the pieces it needs to make it happen.

Rock Health: H1 Funding Comeback

There’s a comeback brewing for digital health, with Rock Health’s latest funding report showing that the sector is officially on track to beat last year’s investment total.   

US digital health startups raised $5.7 billion across 266 rounds in the first half of 2024, setting a pace that could surpass 2023’s full-year total of $10.7 billion.

Most of the excitement came from early-stage startups. Seed, Series A, and Series B raises accounted for 84% of labeled rounds in H1. The median size of a Series A was $15M (up $3M from last year), driven by big showings from companies like Hippocratic AI and Fabric

  • Rock Health pointed out that larger Series As have helped AI startups manage costs for training models and acquiring datasets, while also helping others make well-timed M&A (Ex. Fabric’s acquisition of MeMD from Walmart).

Unlabeled rounds started to wane as fewer companies pushed off a valuation haircut or delayed a labeled raise due to not meeting necessary benchmarks. Just 33% of Q2 2024 rounds were unlabeled, down from 47% in Q1 and 55% in Q4 2023.

  • This could mark the beginning of a return to a more normal cadence of labeled raises, which Rock Health predicted would be in the cards for 2024.

The most funded value proposition in H1 went to “treatment of disease,” thanks in part to Foodsmart’s $200M raise feeding the $1.1B total. 

  • Mental health retained its usual position as the most funded clinical indication, raising $700M as companies like Talkiatry and Brightside managed to attract more investor attention than the surging weight management segment ($300M).

The first half saw three public exits for digital health companies, ending a 21 month drought with stock market debuts for Nuvo (remote fetal monitoring), Tempus AI (precision diagnostics), and Waystar (revenue cycle management).

  • Among players still gearing up for an IPO, fewer companies were rounding out their offerings by acquiring the missing pieces, which was chalked up to companies wanting to be conservative with their runway. H1 2024 clocked in at 34 digital health acquisitions, well below half of 2023’s full-year total (83).  

The Takeaway

Resilience seems to be leading to brilliance for digital health founders, with overall funding momentum and fewer transition measures (AKA unlabeled rounds) suggesting the “new normal” is upon us. Although a presidential election and decisions around telehealth flexibilities will have a huge impact on the rest of the year, most signs are pointing toward H2 playing out just as well as the first half.

Spotlight on Prior Authorization, Humata Health

Digital health’s flavor of the week was prior authorization, which has clearly been leaving a bad taste in people’s mouths.

Humata Health took center stage by adding $25M in unlabeled funding to advance its AI prior auth automation suite for payors and providers. 

  • CEO Dr. Jeremy Friese was president of Olive’s payor business before forming Humata to acquire the PA assets after the company was forced to wind-down, and dealt with the headaches of prior auth first-hand during his time practicing at Mayo Clinic.
  • The round was led by Blue Venture Fund (representing the majority of BCBS plans) and LRVHealth (investing on behalf of nearly 30 health systems), which sends a strong signal about Humata’s ability to support both sides of the prior auth equation.

MedPAC’s annual report to Congress did a great job highlighting the prior auth inefficiencies that Humata set out to solve:

  • 95% of PA determinations by Medicare Advantage plans in 2021 were “fully favorable.” In other words, the plans approved nearly all treatments deemed necessary by providers at full coverage.
  • Further, after providers appealed an initial PA denial, MA plans reversed their decision and fully approved the PA request in 80% of cases. That means all of the manual labor and staff hours results in the same outcome 99% of the time.

Right on cue, the AMA put out its own physician survey on the topic, finding that the average physician fields 43 PA requests per week that require 12 hours of staff time to resolve.

  • Two-thirds didn’t believe that PA decision criteria are evidence-based, and nearly all reported that PA increases burnout. 
  • Most physicians also agreed that PA increases overall utilization as patients are forced to pursue less effective treatments or schedule additional appointments after PA delays.

The Takeaway

You’d be hard pressed to find a single payor or provider that thinks prior authorizations are perfect in their current state, and regulators are starting to take notice. Bipartisan leaders recently reintroduced legislation to mandate electronic processes for streamlining PA, following a final rule from CMS in January with the same goal.

Telehealth Struggles to Live Up to Expectations

Telehealth demand hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, but that might have more to do with manic forecasting than real-world performance when a 6,000x utilization increase isn’t enough to satisfy the naysayers.

There’s nothing like forced adoption to kickstart a market, and the combination of in-person office closures and pandemic-era legal flexibilities caused telehealth utilization to vault from less than a million visits in Q4 2019 to over 60 million visits by Q2 2020.

(Overly) enthusiastic forecasts quickly followed the early data, but Trilliant Health’s latest telehealth tracker shows that demand has only headed downhill since the initial spike. 

  • As of Q3 2023, sustained declines have left telehealth volumes 54.7% below their peak, and the trendline doesn’t appear to have found a bottom.

Recent high-profile retreats from players Optum and Walmart have sparked solid viewpoints from pessimists and optimists alike, although the general consensus is that patients don’t view telehealth as a substitute for in-person care for most conditions.

  • Since 2019, behavioral health has represented a consistently increasing share of overall telehealth utilization, and accounted for a substantial majority (67%) of all virtual visits in Q3 2023.

E-prescribing increases closely mirrored the telehealth growth, and now represent a significant share of prescriptions for many drug classes:

  • 30.3% of antidepressants, 38.9% of stimulants, and 5.4% of opioids. It’ll be interesting to see the GLP-1 data when it catches up.

The Takeaway

Event-driven demand shocks don’t last forever, and the telehealth slowdown showed that reality is usually more nuanced than an overnight paradigm shift. New modalities don’t magically create better businesses, but they can be the tools that founders use to build them.

The Hidden Cost of Mental Health Inequities

Mental health inequities across the US are racking up an annual tab of over $477 billion, and a new report from Deloitte and the Meharry School of Global Health didn’t offer a particularly rosy forecast given our current trajectory.

If left unchecked, the authors expect the annual burden to reach $1.3 trillion by 2040, a brutal total considering the “avoidable and unnecessary expenses” behind it.

Drawing on data from government agencies and Komodo Health, the researchers identified four primary cost drivers stemming directly from mental health inequities.

  • Avoidable ED utilization resulting from untreated or undertreated mental health conditions. 2024 Expenditures: $5.3B
  • Chronic physical conditions linked to mental health’s role as “the invisible counterpart to physical health.” 2024 Expenditures: $23.9B
  • Productivity loss due to mental health-related unemployment and missed work days. 2024 Expenditures: $116B
  • Premature deaths from suicide, substance use disorders, and mental illness associated with comorbid conditions. 2024 Expenditures: $332.2B

Disadvantaged populations are disproportionately impacted across all four categories due to a “legacy of policies” creating structural inequality, and the report lays out several solutions taking different routes to the same destination: equal access for those who need it most.

  • One way to get there is to address the provider shortage by integrating behavioral care with primary care. Not only do PCPs already manage areas like depression, but they’re also experts in the chronic conditions more prevalent among mental health patients. 
  • From a regulatory standpoint, Congress should look at reimbursement policies that “create unintended barriers to treatment.” A prime example is Medicaid being “woefully underfunded” to ensure access to care for the 40% of nonelderly beneficiaries with a mental health or substance use disorder.

The Takeaway

If the moral argument for addressing mental health inequities wasn’t enough to inspire action, this business argument should be just as compelling to payors and employers. Although the answers to the problem are obviously easier said than done, the report succeeded in framing up the massive cost of not solving it at all.

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