OpenEvidence’s Quiet Raise and Loud Pivot

OpenEvidence just inked a major partnership as it breaks into drug development, and it didn’t even make a fuss about the mega-round it raised to fuel it.

Let’s start with the partnership. OpenEvidence is teaming up with Memorial Sloan Kettering and was generous with the details when explaining the move to Forbes.

  • The collaboration itself was fairly straightforward. MSK is plugging OE into its Epic workflows, and OE is integrating MSK’s OncoKB precision oncology database into its engine to let physicians access the treasure trove of data on genetic variants of different cancers and their treatments.

The fine print was huge. A single sentence bolted onto a paragraph in the middle of the Forbes article revealed that OE quietly raised $250M at a $15B valuation last week. For context:

  • January – $250M at $12B, with a big announcement and press tour for CEO Daniel Nadler.
  • July – The Information reported OE was weighing a $200M raise at $20B.
  • September – $250M at $15B, revealed in a blurb sandwiched between partner coverage.

Not necessarily a down round, but the silence was deafening. Especially considering how much other OE news has been hitting the wire recently:

  • a new family of four AI models featuring Darwin, the first AI in history to score a perfect 100% on the MedQA benchmark.
  • a partnership with Anthropic to give physicians in 100 lower-income countries open access to OE’s clinical decision support.

But wait, there’s more. Nadler told Forbes that OE plans to start developing its own oncology therapies, with the first drug entering clinical trials before year-end and another three candidates on the way next year, starting with rare cancers. 

  • Bit of a head scratcher, but OE isn’t planning to compete with Lilly or Pfizer on 10,000-patient trials. It’s going after “the stuff that they are not doing, and maybe can’t do” because they don’t have OE’s “economies of scale in finding these patients.”

Why go after drug development? Probably the same reason as the funding radio silence – competition is compounding.

  • As OE expands from clinical search into nearby workflows, it’s not only bumping up against Wolters Kluwer and Elsevier, it’s also competing with new heavyweights like Abridge and Doximity.
  • Abridge has giant friends in the pharma space and is only making more, while Doximity just reported a blowout quarter on the back of its solutions that compete directly with OE. 
  • Doximity’s call also snuck in a rumor that an unnamed “major system” is cracking down on shadow AI and banning a product from a direct competitor. Maybe OE, maybe true.

The Takeaway

For all the AI fearmongering that’s been going on recently, it’s nice to see OpenEvidence randomly decide to cure cancer, regardless of the valuation it hit while funding the new quest.

Hinge Files for Long-Awaited IPO 

When the digital health market needed a hero, Hinge Health answered the call.

Hinge officially filed for its IPO, braving the biggest stock market downturn in recent memory to pull the tech-enabled services category out of a years-long slump.

  • It’s a bold move, but Hinge has the business to back it up. Using a combination of virtual care and AI, Hinge delivers MSK treatment programs with comparable outcomes to traditional physical therapy at a fraction of the cost.
  • Hinge has apparently been able to automate 95% of MSK care delivery, saving its clients (primarily employers and payors) an estimated $2,387 per member per year.

Diving into the S-1, Hinge grew its revenue by 33% to $390M in 2024. It also managed to cut its net loss from $108M down to just $12M, generating 77% gross margins in the process.

  • Hinge reported 532k members and ~200M contracted lives across 2,250 clients, and counts nearly half of the Fortune 500 as clients. 
  • Great stats all around, but a nice soundbite from the S-1 was that “current contracted lives only represent 5% of our total addressable market,” and Hinge is now on the hunt for more growth through commercial plans and Medicare Advantage.

Even with the impressive metrics, Hinge’s last private valuation came in at a rich $6.2B at the height of the pandemic, meaning that it’ll need around a 15X revenue multiple just to match it.

  • It’s not out of the question, but Hims & Hers has been one of the lone bright spots for public digital health companies, and it’s trading at just 5X revenue.

The entire tech-enabled services market feels like it hinges on this IPO, at least if you’ve been following this week’s reaction to the S-1.

  • Hinge is going to be the first health tech startup to go public since Waystar last June, and VCs have been hesitant to invest in the category given the lack of major exits.
  • If Hinge’s debut goes well, it would restore some much-needed confidence in the market, and potentially even kick off a revival in the dormant IPO landscape.

The Takeaway

Hinge is a true disrupter, with an outcomes-driven alternative to traditional physical therapy and a ton of momentum in one of healthcare’s largest markets. We’ll definitely be rooting for them when they ring the bell.

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