Mid-Year Digital Health Predictions

The digital health sector has gotten a bit of an ego check since the white hot market at the start of the pandemic. Rising interest rates and a minor banking crisis continue to put a damper on startups’ ability to raise capital, but a mid-year prediction roundup from some of healthcare’s top dealmakers gives a good preview of what might come next as the market cools.

Dudley Baker, Canaccord Genuity. Notable moves: Privia Health IPO, Doximity IPO

  • Since 2020, many startups have sprung up to provide specialized behavioral health and chronic condition management benefits to employers, but the surge in valuations made many of them too expensive to acquire. These companies could have a hard time raising more capital on their own, so Baker expects them to seek out mergers of equals instead.

Claire Pearson, Barclays. Notable moves: Cricket’s merger with InterWell and Fresenius 

  • Pearson sees four areas ripe for M&A centered around new tech capabilities and scale: women’s health, orthopedics, cardiology, and kidney care. Pearson pointed to Cricket’s merger with InterWell and Fresenius as an example of what works in each of these sectors – it combined contracting, providers, and technology under one roof.

Fletcher Gregory, General Atlantic. Notable investments: Included Health, Vida Health

  • Employers weary from working with too many vendors have begun narrowing their focus to companies that can deliver outcomes and lower costs. To make the cut, Gregory predicts that digital health startups working on a single problem are going to have to improve their clinical models in ways that they likely can’t do without combining.

Seth Kneller, TripleTree. Notable moves: KKR’s acquisition of Therapy Brands.

  • Kneller favors companies that are addressing the labor crisis by helping hospitals and health systems become more efficient. Companies using AI to take over tasks like clinical documentation and administrative work look especially attractive to acquirers, but only if they can prove cost reductions for hospitals. 

Karl Palasz, William Blair. Notable moves: Fortive’s acquisition of Provation

  • Companies that employ behavioral health providers to deliver virtual care have struggled to live up to expectations due to a lack of differentiation and the clinician shortage. Palasz has his eye on companies that provide software to niche behavioral health practices, such as substance-use recovery or autism.

The Takeaway

Pending any major economic catastrophe, it seems like the general consensus is that the tide could start turning for digital health M&A within the next few months. Although the IPO market will probably stay limited, the partnerships that are forming now are setting the stage for more M&A in the back half of the year as companies look to combine so they can better weather the tough funding environment.

Amino Lands $80M for Benefits Navigation

Health benefits navigation platform Amino Health just gave our lackluster Q2 funding totals a nice eight-figure lift after landing $80M in an even mix of equity and debt financing.

Amino got its start as a direct-to-consumer healthcare guidance product before recently evolving into an enterprise subscription model serving health plan members, third-party administrators, and benefits administrators.

  • Amino’s platform offers customizable tools to guide its users toward efficient care, using over 200 clinical quality measures to assess the quality and necessity of various treatments for everything from migraines to surgery.
  • The company says its D2C roots “battle tested” the platform’s user experience, and it now supports over 1.6M members with 97% customer retention – usage that’s generated 26 billion claims to date.

Within the last quarter, Amino added over 500k providers by including groups like nurse practitioners and physician assistants, and the new funding will accelerate further marketing and product development efforts.

  • As the benefits market expands and grapples with new regulatory requirements and an explosion of data – particularly from the federal Transparency in Coverage Rule – startups providing navigation tools have had some positive tailwinds.
  • The funding environment for these companies has held up better than the broader sector, with recent rounds including HealthJoy’s $60M Series D and Transcarent’s $200M Series C.

The Takeaway

Amino’s transition away from D2C gives the company a more capital-efficient model that allows its product to get sponsored by either the employers that are purchasing the benefits directly or the partners who are helping people find them. The large funding round gives Amino credit for the pivot, as well as $80M to help it execute on the new strategy.

How to Scale a Health Tech Business to $100M ARR

Bessemer Venture Partners recently put out a top-tier blog post outlining how to scale a health tech business to $100M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and the benchmarks to look out for along the way.

We won’t dive into the full finance lesson, but here’s an overview of the key benchmarks Bessemer gave to help understand how top performers compare to similar companies. 

Every company is different, but Bessemer segments health tech businesses into two main buckets.

  • Healthcare SaaS – Cloud-based software alongside data and analytics with highly recurring revenue. Examples include Doximity, Mindbody, and Veeva.
  • Tech-Enabled Services – Care or navigation support to patients via either B2B2C or direct-to-consumer models. Revenue is mostly recurring from either an enterprise or consumer via subscriptions. Examples include Hims & Hers, Livongo, and Accolade.

It takes roughly a decade to reach $100M in ARR across most health tech businesses. However, tech-enabled services businesses scale to their first $10M ARR in an average of three years, whereas healthcare SaaS businesses take an average of six years due to longer sales and implementation cycles.

Growth slows as companies scale their ARR. Bessemer found that both business categories see revenue growth of over 200% until $10M ARR, and each grow half as fast by the time they reach $25M ARR. Tech-enabled services grow faster than SaaS at every step.

Improving margins unlocks scalability. Tech-enabled services businesses steadily improve gross margins as they scale due to several factors (pricing power follows proven outcomes, tech improvements improve care quality, provider panels get more efficient). Healthcare SaaS businesses see more stable 65-70% gross margins across all stages.

The Takeaway

Bessemer’s full analysis breaks down pretty much every metric a health tech startup could ask for to inform their scaling decisions, but the three charts above give a quick snapshot of top performers. For a full benchmark overview by company size, make sure to bookmark these cheat sheets for Healthcare SaaS and Tech-Enabled Services.

ChatGPT Crowned the Champ of Bedside Manner

The most talked about research of the week was easily the JAMA Internal Medicine study that found that licensed medical professionals prefer ChatGPT’s responses to patient questions better than doctors’ responses 79% of the time – in part because ChatGPT is more empathetic.

What wasn’t discussed as much was the fact that the doctors’ responses were sourced from questions on Reddit – AKA from doctors with the time and empathy to share their thoughts in the first place – so it’s possible that ChatGPT’s lead is even wider than it’s getting credit for.

Here’s how it worked. Researchers randomly pulled 195 exchanges from the r/AskDocs subreddit where a verified physician responded to a patient question.

  • ChatGPT responses were then generated by entering the original question into a fresh session (without prior questions to work with). The anonymized responses were then evaluated by five licensed medical professionals.
  • Evaluators chose “which response was better,” then judged “the quality of information provided” (very poor, poor, acceptable, good, or very good) and “the empathy or bedside manner provided” (not empathetic, slightly empathetic, moderately empathetic, empathetic, and very empathetic). Outcomes were transferred to a 5 point scale.

The results were a blowout. The proportion of responses rated as “good” or “very good” quality was 3.6x higher for ChatGPT, with 78.5% of ChatGPT responses scoring ≥4 points versus… 22.1% for physicians.

  • The proportion of responses rated as “empathetic” or “very empathetic” was a whopping 9.8x higher for ChatGPT, with 45.1% of ChatGPT responses scoring ≥4 points versus just 4.6% for physicians. 
  • Disclaimer: It probably wasn’t too hard for the judges to discern between ChatGPT’s well-punctuated prose (not to mention its 211 word average response length) and the off-the-cuff Reddit comments of the physicians (52 word average).

The Takeaway

When it comes to answering the health questions of random Reddit users, tireless AI robots appear to be far better than physicians donating their time. That said, overflowing EHR inboxes remain a leading contributor to physician burnout, and the authors summed it up perfectly with: “Despite the limitations of this study and the frequent overhyping of new technologies, studying the addition of AI assistants to patient messaging workflows holds promise with the potential to improve both clinician and patient outcomes.”

The 45 Best Digital Health Newsletters, Influencers, and Podcasts for 2023

We’re dedicating today’s top story to the people and publications that we rely on to find the most interesting digital health stories from across the web. Assuming that you already subscribe to Digital Health Wire, these are the 45 other newsletters, websites, and podcasts to follow if you want to keep up with the latest and greatest in healthcare.

Although we stay on top of all the mainstream outlets and digital health journals, some of the best content is usually found just off the beaten path. We’re a newsletter, we love newsletters, so we’re kicking things off with our favorite healthcare newsletters. 

When we’re done rounding up the headlines from the major news sites and back out of our morning newsletter rabbit hole, we can count on finding more fresh perspectives from these specialty publications and blogs.

These days most of our favorite content isn’t published, it’s tweeted. These all-stars are the ones doing the tweeting. (With sample tweets for your viewing pleasure.)

And finally, the podcasts that let our ears take over when our eyes are tired from all the blogs and tweets. We have a soft spot for founder interviews, B2B trends, and long form conversations.

It’s a lot to keep up with, but if you want the best digital health news out there, these sources will do more than get you started. You can also subscribe to Digital Health Wire and we’ll do the heavy lifting for you:)

PS – This list could easily have been a top 100, so if there’s a publication or news source that we’re crazy for not including, hit reply and let us know!

HIMSS23 Recap and Major Announcements

It’s Thursday morning on the final day of HIMSS23, and although most exhibitors are still diligently manning their booths in the Windy City, the announcement fireworks have already gone off and it’s time to round up some of the biggest stories from the trade show.

The exhibit hall chatter had a familiar ring to it, touching on the same themes of healthcare consumerization and workforce burnout that were favorites at ViVE, but with a good amount of HIMSS’ signature interoperability seasoning sprinkled on top.

The list of generative AI launches somehow managed to be longer than the line at a McCormick Place Starbucks, but it seemed like most of the ~35,000 attendees were balancing the initial shock and awe with a realistic understanding of the tech’s current limitations in healthcare.

HIMSS23 major announcements, launches, and partnerships:

  • Amazon rolled out several Alexa Smart Properties features designed to improve the patient and staff user experience at hospitals. The updates look like they make the lives of IT teams easier as they set up and maintain Alexa devices like the newly available Echo Show 15.
  • Caregility announced a new portfolio of hybrid care solutions built on Caregility Cloud that’s designed to reduce tech investment risks for health systems by offering the flexibility to choose apps that are a good fit for their environment without creating more IT silos.
  • eClinicalWorks introduced ChatGPT to its EHR and practice management solutions with the goal of making clinical workflows more efficient as it deepens its collaboration with Microsoft. Azure OpenAI Service will also be enhancing Scribe, eClinicalWorks’ AI dictation service.
  • Epic and Microsoft are bringing generative AI powered by Azure OpenAI Service to the Epic EHR, which might take the cake as the biggest announcement of the show. The partnership delivers a “comprehensive array” of solutions, including SlicerDicer self-service reporting. 
  • Health Gorilla took the lid off its HG Accelerator Program that gives startups access to its solutions, portfolio of healthcare data APIs, and interop mentorship. The inaugural class already includes Oatmeal Health (AI cancer screening) and Long Health (patient onboarding).
  • Innovaccer unveiled six new solutions that together look like the beginning of a new chapter in the company’s growth story. The Sara conversational AI leads the lineup that also includes Health Equity, Readmission Predict, Risk AI, Network Optimizer, and Health 1:1.
  • Memora landed $30M to scale its SMS-based care communication platform that automates clinical responses to frequently asked questions, nudges patients with care prompts, and sends reminders via text, escalating only the most urgent concerns to care teams.
  • Philips released its Future Health Index 2023 global report, which found that healthcare leaders are investing heavily in AI for both critical decision support and operational efficiency, and that these execs are leaning into outside partnerships to help provide the best possible care.
  • RevSpring launched Engage IQ to coordinate patient interactions from pre-service to post-service to payment. The platform handles intake, clinical reminders, and billing to improve clinical and financial outcomes while solidifying patient loyalty.
  • Rimidi’s clinical management platform is now integrated with MEDITECH, allowing clinicians to see remote patient-generated data and PROMs within disease-specific views in the patient chart alongside CDS support to drive next best steps.
  • Salesforce customers can now use Einstein GPT to generate info using natural language prompts directly within their Salesforce CRM, with a new Slack integration also allowing care teams to summarize chat information and complete CRM tasks.
  • symplr debuted four product suites as part of its Connected Enterprise initiative to help health systems address burnout and cost pressures. The new portfolio includes a Workforce Suite, Supply Chain Suite, Quality Suite, and Credentialing Suite.
  • Withings completed its new range of smart scales with the introduction of the Body Smart scale that brings body comp, heart rate, visceral fat, metabolic age, and basal metabolic rate analysis to the entry-level tier of the lineup.

It’s now been three years since the pandemic stopped HIMSS20 in its tracks, but healthcare’s biggest IT conference is very much alive and well with an in-person energy that’s straight out of 2019. We hope that everyone had an awesome time if you made it to Chicago, and welcome all of our new readers that we met at the show. Stay tuned for a deeper dive into some of these announcements next week.

a16z: Healthtech Business Model Magic

The news cycle took a bit of a breather ahead of the upcoming wave of HIMSS announcements, giving us a chance to highlight an excellent thinkpiece from the healthtech team at a16z.

After charting up a beautiful comparison of publicly traded healthcare companies versus other growth companies, a16z found that the healthcare outperformers leverage the same three types of “business model magic” as the world’s largest tech companies:

  • Increasing customer lifetime value (LTV Magic)
  • Expanding operating leverage (Operating Leverage Magic)
  • Declining customer acquisition costs (CAC Magic)

LTV Magic can be boiled down to creating “sticky” products with high retention. Healthtech companies that embed their platform into their customers’ core workflows can then build pricing power and widening revenue streams.

  • Outperformers can add new components to their platforms that increase LTV without a proportionate increase in costs. Ex. Flatiron Health’s provider network enabled it to efficiently build a pharma-facing, real-world evidence generation business on top.

Operating Leverage Magic revolves around reducing the marginal costs to serve customers as the business expands – mainly by leveraging software’s near-zero marginal cost dynamics.

  • Outperformers in a16z’s analysis also maintain modest operating expenditure growth at the central business level as they scale. Ex. Agilon and Oak Street command a valuation premium for impacting the cost of care without having to hire many central clinical staff.

CAC Magic involves finding ways to have declining marginal costs of customer acquisition. One of the most efficient ways to acquire new customers is by accessing groups of patients through partnerships with entities that already maintain those relationships, like MA plans.

  • Outperformers also have network effects that make their service more valuable as more people use it. Ex. Doximity gave more value to its 10,000th user than its 1,000th user, making it easier to acquire new users over time.

The Takeaway

a16z makes one thing very clear with its analysis: investors are ultimately underwriting a business’s ability to generate a lot of revenue over the long term. Every healthcare startup has to find its own way to reach that goal, but the three types of magic highlighted by a16z give a good sense of the ways that current outperformers are earning their premium valuations.

Rock Health Q1 2023 Funding Recap

Rock Health’s Q1 2023 digital health funding report is out and its title couldn’t have put it any better: we’re investing like it’s 2019 again.

Here are the numbers in a nutshell:

  • US digital health funding totaled $3.4B across 132 rounds ($25.9M average)
  • Trend: $2.2B (Q3 2022) -> $2.7B (Q4 2022) -> $3.4B (Q1 2023)
  • Q1 2023: 28 Series A rounds, 10 Series B, 3 Series C, 7 Series D+
  • 6 mega-rounds over $100M accounted for 40% total funding 

Looking at the past decade (Chart: Funding Trend), it’s clear that the pandemic funding environment was an outlier capped by absolute mania in 2021. The funding uptrend seen in the last few quarters is also a far cry from a true bull run.

  • If funding for the rest of the year matched the average funding of the past three quarters, 2023 would still see the lowest funding total since 2019.
  • Although January and February brought cooling inflation and some real signs of hope, March stepped on any blooming momentum with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Something that Rock Health gave a lot of attention to – and for good reason – is that 40% of last quarter’s funding was from six mega-rounds (Chart: Mega-Round Breakdown) : 

  • Monograph Health – $375M Series C (at-home dialysis)
  • ShiftKey – $300M PE Round (staffing marketplace)
  • Paradigm – $203M Series A (clinical trial platform – largest digital health Series A ever)
  • ShiftMed – $200M Venture Round (staffing and workforce solutions)
  • Gravie – $179M PE Round (insurtech)
  • Vytalize Health – $100M Series C (Medicare ACO)

The other 126 startups split the remaining $2B slice of pie, with an average round size of $16M (vs. $25.9M with the mega-rounds). It makes a big impact, but if you remember back to 2021, we’re currently looking more sane than 88 mega-rounds combining for 56% of total funding.

The Takeaway

Outside of a positive funding trend over the last few quarters, it’s hard to interpret Rock Health’s report as great news for digital health startups. We have a regional banking crisis that might be in its early innings, the IPO market’s been barren since the 2021 SPAC craze, and the end of PHE isn’t exactly a tailwind for many business models. 
That said, it isn’t all doom and gloom. Rock Health is optimistic about the permanent expansion of some telehealth flexibilities and the improving guardrails for data privacy. “Those that make it to daybreak (though we can’t predict exactly when that’ll be) will come out with patched up ships and resilient mindsets.”

ViVE 2023 Recap and Major Announcements

Over 7,500 ViVE Nashville attendees are packing up their cowboy boots and heading home after a beautiful few days in Music City, U.S.A.

The generative AI hype cycle was almost loud enough to drown out the live musicians scattered throughout the venue, but it didn’t stop other stories from breaking through the noise, such as the brightening outlook for digital therapeutics in the wake of AppliedVR’s newly issued reimbursement code.

ViVE stayed true to form and kept the spotlight on the vendors, so we’ll follow their lead and dive right into some of the biggest announcements from the show.

  • Atropos Health unveiled its Atropos Evidence Network that allows physicians to surface answers to their clinical questions from the most appropriate data set across dozens of partner organizations such as ASCO CancerLinQ and Mayo Clinic.
  • AvaSure and Equum Medical showcased their virtual monitoring collaboration that combines AvaSure’s room monitoring hardware / software with Equum’s staff / monitoring services hosted from a new Virtual Care Collaboration Center in Nashville.
  • Amazon Web Services announced the 23 startups participating in its latest healthcare accelerator that provides mentorship to companies tackling problems across three core areas in dire need of new solutions: retention, deployment, and training.
  • Brightside Health detailed the findings of its recent study which found that patients who supplemented psychotherapy with video lessons based on the Unified Protocol saw significantly greater reduction in both depression and anxiety symptoms.
  • DiMe and Moffitt Cancer Center are teaming up to lay the foundation needed to meet the Cancer Moonshot’s ambitious goal of cutting the death rate from cancer by at least 50% over the next 25 years – big news that we’ll circle back on in the coming weeks.
  • Infermedica is expanding its API capabilities to include AI-driven patient intake workflows that initiate medical data collection prior to consultations to improve clinician efficiency and personalize the patient experience.
  • Notable is deploying its intelligent automation platform across Wisconsin-based Marshfield Clinic Health System’s entire organization (1,200 providers, 60 clinics, 11 hospitals) to create a better overall experience for 310k+ patients.
  • Philips debuted its comprehensive Virtual Care Management solution that combines condition-specific protocols with connected devices and engagement tools to deliver data / insights that enable timely interventions and workflow efficiencies.
  • Propeller Health and UC Davis Health announced a collaboration that will offer personalized treatment for high-risk patients with asthma and COPD by leveraging Propeller’s RPM sensors, mobile app, and targeted support. 
  • Transcarent is incorporating Care Journey’s quality and cost insights to equip patients with digestible provider profiles, cost benchmarks, and quality measures across specialties such as orthopedics, cardiology, gynecology, primary care, and pediatrics.
  • Trilliant Health released its health plan price transparency solution that blends its proprietary provider directory and market analytics with data from payor transparency files to reveal the negotiated reimbursements between health plans and providers for any service.
  • Verana Health launched its first Data-as-a-Service product, Qdata Anti-VEGF Market Tracker, which tracks real-world usage of anti-VEGF therapies in de-identified patients with retinal conditions while providing granular market segmentation.

Special thanks to all of our readers who were at the show and caught us up on the latest and greatest. For those of you holding onto more announcements for HIMSS, we’d love to connect in Chicago. Hit reply and let’s set something up!

Mindstrong Calls it Quits, Offloads Tech to SonderMind

Mindstrong might have flown a little too close to the sun with its promise of detecting early signs of mental illness through smartphone data, and it’s now shuttering operations after selling off its core technology to former competitor SonderMind.

Once a venture capital darling, Mindstrong wooed investors on the idea of an app that could serve as a “smoke alarm” for mental health issues by scanning smartphones for “digital biomarkers” such as erratic scrolling and typing errors.

That turned out to be a tall order. A recent investigation by STAT revealed that investors were leaning on Mindstrong to commercialize the technology too soon, and that the company lost momentum after the departure of key founders.

  • As Mindstrong’s core technology struggled to get up to speed, the company pivoted to providing virtual therapy with a focus on serious mental illness.
  • That road was equally rocky, causing Mindstrong to lay off a majority of its employees and stop treating patients earlier this year.

Enter SonderMind, a full-service virtual therapy platform that leverages machine learning to match patients with an ideal therapist for in-person or virtual appointments.

  • Mindstrong’s purpose-built EHR and digital biomarker tech will help SonderMind offer more specialized care journeys and improve its ability to treat patients with serious mental illness.
  • The move comes just months after SonderMind acquired Total Brain to enhance its user-guided wellness tools, and less than two years after it acquired Qntfy to unlock more value from its patient and provider data.

The Takeaway

Mental health remains one of the hottest corners of the digital health market, but outside of a few notable examples like the Headspace-Ginger merger, we haven’t seen a huge wave of M&A as valuations come back down to Earth. SonderMind now has a chance to be the next success story, assuming it can integrate its acquisitions into a cohesive offering for everything from wellness exercises to psychiatric care.

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